By Michael Boyer*
March 2009 – For the second straight year, domestic attendance at movie theaters across the U.S. took a plunge. More than 50 million fewer tickets were sold in 2008 than in 2007, a drop of 3.6%. Hollywood had already experienced a net loss of tickets sold in 2007 from the previous calendar year of 2006. Figures for the industry were released January 2 by industry tracker Box Office Mojo.
Inevitably, Hollywood will try to backtrack and blame the economy. But that would contradict predictions made by National Association of Theater Owners president John Fithian earlier in 2008 when he said that movies would not be affected by a looming recession, telling The Associated Press, “We certainly have done very well during recessions.”
The newly released figures also are shattering the old Tinseltown adage “Hollywood thrives when the economy dives.” In fact, other than a small bump in theater attendance in 2006, movie box office has been steadily declining since the boom year of 2002 when over 1.5 billion movie tickets were sold, which translates into 220 million more tickets sold than 2008 totals. Factoring in the new 300-million-plus U.S. population, the theater attendance decline is actually much steeper.
Some apologists for the movie industry are pointing the finger at shorter release windows for films and the emergence of DVD sales. However, Dan Ramer of www.dvdfile.com notes, “Part of that may be due to more people purchasing DVD players … but clearly a contributing factor is also the product, the films themselves.”
Translation: Most movies are just not worth the moviegoer’s time and money in addition to being largely out of touch with the American and worldwide audience. Furthermore, in January 2008, the Digital Entertainment Group reported that sales and rentals of DVDs fell for the first time in the 10-year history of the format.
The Movie Advisory Board conducted a survey in March 2006 asking, “Why Not Go to a Theater?” The number one reason given by respondents: “Movies are not very good and do not meet expectations.”
Incredibly, there are still a few straightforward executives in Hollywood who don’t blame new technology for the ongoing slide in theatrical attendance. In the words of Clark Woods, president of distribution for MGM: “Let’s be honest. We didn’t exactly come out with the best products in the past few years. … We may have forgotten a little about Middle America.”
While the Hollywood entertainment media boasts of outstanding gross receipts for certain films at the box office throughout the year, it is not a reliable forecast of a film’s true success. A better way to gauge a movie’s overall popularity and profitability is to look at the ratio of gross box office receipts in relation to the film’s budget. Using this more accurate formula, Fireproof came out of 2008 as the clear winner, pulling in over $33 million on a film with a production budget of only $500,000 – an outstanding 66-fold return.
The biggest loser for 2008 was Frost/Nixon, which had only returned box office receipts of $4 million after opening December 5. The film played into the first week of 2009, but lost its footing by the first Sunday of the month. Given the movie’s $25 million budget plus Universal’s $10 million spent in desperation marketing, that amounts to about a 12-1 loss on their investment.
On the other hand, Fireproof became a hit largely due to word of mouth promotion and a minimal advertising budget provided by Sony Provident and Samuel Goldwyn Films.
Elizabeth Eubanks of Atlanta remarked, “Fireproof literally saved my marriage. My husband and I went to see a movie for entertainment and came away with a solution to our own personal crisis. Hollywood can be a powerful force for good when it chooses to be, which isn’t often.”
Unfortunately for director Ron Howard, the Eubankses did not feel the same way about Frost/Nixon. After seeing the previews and reading an article by Eleanor Clift of Newsweek, the couple decided to avoid the movie altogether. “We thought Oliver Stone had already assassinated Nixon once. What more do they [Hollywood] want?” Playwright and screenwriter Peter Morgan admitted that much of the movie was not authentic.
As Clift wrote in the December 5, 2008, Newsweek, “Ron Howard said he started out looking for a reason to forgive Nixon, but concluded that abuse of power can never be forgiven.” This is not surprising.
In Howard’s newfound role as God, he lost many fans after directing The Da Vinci Code, which was clearly intended by author Dan Brown to cast doubt on people’s faith in Christ. Perhaps 2009 will be a chance for Hollywood to again get in touch with Middle America and make a profit at the same time. 
*Michael Boyer is author of The Hollywood Culture War and a 20-year veteran movie location coordinator and film commissioner.
